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Points Added's Accuracy in the NCAA Tournament

Within only a small margin of error,
Points Added reflects actual scoring margins.

Consider the following....

The 2002 NBA Finals
	Actual Result	PA Result	Adjusted PA Result (Removes Double-Counting)*
Game 1	Lakers by 5	Lakers by 9	Lakers by 5
Game 2	Lakers by 23	Lakers by 22	Lakers by 21
Game 3	Lakers by 3	Lakers by 1	Lakers by 8
Game 4	Lakers by 6	Lakers by 10	Lakers by 7
Success in correctly indicating winner	N/A	4-0 (100%)	4-0 (100%)
Average Pts/G off from actual margin	N/A	2.75	2.0
Success in indicating actual margin w/i 2 pts	N/A	2-2 (50%)	3-1 (75%)
Success in indicating actual margin w/i 4 pts	N/A	4-0 (100%)	3-1 (75%)
Success in indicating actual margin w/i 6 pts	N/A	4-0 (100%)	4-0 (100%)

*Adjusted PA removes the double-counting that unavoidably results from steals (which also count as turnovers), blocks (which also count as missed field goals), and assists (which also count as made field goals); and it also includes team rebounds (rebounds not credited to a specific player).

2002 NBA Finals Summary:

PA correctly indicated the winner in all 4 games
PA indicated the actual scoring margin within 4 points in every game
On average, PA indicated the actual scoring margin within less than 3 points per game
On average, Adjusted PA indicated the actual scoring margin within 2 points per game

The 2001 NBA Finals
	Actual Result	PA Result	Adjusted PA Result (Removes Double-Counting)*
Game 1	76ers by 6	76ers by 2	76ers by 6
Game 2	Lakers by 9	Lakers by 18	Lakers by 11
Game 3	Lakers by 5	Lakers by 12	Lakers by 8
Game 4	Lakers by 14	Lakers by 18	Lakers by 14
Game 5	Lakers by 12	Lakers by 15	Lakers by 13
Success in correctly indicating winner	N/A	5-0 (100%)	5-0 (100%)
Average Pts/G off from actual margin	N/A	5.4	1.2
Success in indicating actual margin w/i 2 pts	N/A	0-5 (0%)	4-1 (80%)
Success in indicating actual margin w/i 4 pts	N/A	3-2 (60%)	5-0 (100%)
Success in indicating actual margin w/i 6 pts	N/A	3-2 (60%)	5-0 (100%)

2001 NBA Finals Summary:

PA correctly indicated the winner in all 5 games
On average, PA indicated the actual scoring margin within less than 6 points per game
Adjusted PA indicated the actual margin within 3 points in every game and pegged it exactly in 2 games
On average, Adjusted PA indicated the actual scoring margin within 1.2 points per game

To examine Points Added's accuracy another way,
note the similarity between the following two lists:

2001-02 NBA Regular Season
Actual Ranking in Scoring Margin		Ranking in Scoring Margin As Indicated by Adjusted PA*
1	SAC	1	LAL
2	LAL	2	SAC
3	SA	3	SA
4	DAL	4	DAL
5	NJ	5	NJ
6	MIN	6	MIN
7	SEA	7	SEA
8	POR	8	POR
9	BOS	9	BOS
10	DET	10	DET
11	PHI	11	ORL
12	ORL	12	PHI
13	CHA	13	CHA
14	UTA	14	UTA
15	IND	15	MIL
16	MIL	16	IND
17	TOR	17	TOR
18	LAC	18	PHO
19	PHO	19	LAC
20	WAS	20	MIA
21	MIA	21	WAS
22	CLE	22	CLE
23	NY	23	NY
24	ATL	24	ATL
25	HOU	25	HOU
26	GS	26	GS
27	DEN	27	DEN
28	MEM	28	MEM
29	CHI	29	CHI

Each team's ranking in scoring margin is essentially identical to its ranking in scoring margin as indicated by Adjusted PA. No team's place in one list is more than one spot different than in the other, and most teams (19 of 29) are in exactly the same spot in each list.

Other 2001-02 NBA Regular Season Data:

The average difference between teams' actual scoring margins (over 82 games) and their scoring margins as indicated by Points Added was less than 2 points (1.7 points) per team.
The average difference between teams' actual scoring margins (over 82 games) and their scoring margins as indicated by Adjusted Points Added was less than half a point (0.3 points) per team.

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