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Points Added Main Page

Probably the most extensive testing of Points Added's accuracy
was done on the 1999 NCAA Tournament.

Points Added were computed for all 63 games played
and compared to actual game margins.

Here are the results:

The 1999 NCAA Tournament (All 63 Games Included)
	Points Added	Adjusted Points Added (Removes Double-Counting)*
Success in correctly indicating winner	59-1-3	62-1
Percentage success in indicating winner	94%	98%
Average Pts/G off from actual margin	4.5	1.5
Success in indicating actual margin w/i 2 pts	22-41 (35%)	53-10 (84%)
Success in indicating actual margin w/i 4 pts	36-27 (57%)	62-1 (98%)
Success in indicating actual margin w/i 6 pts	46-17 (73%)	63-0 (100%)

*Adjusted PA removes the double-counting that unavoidably results from steals (which also count as turnovers), blocks (which also count as missed field goals), and assists (which also count as made field goals).

1999 NCAA Tournament Summary:

PA correctly indicated the winner in 94% of the games
Adjusted PA correctly indicated the winner in all but 1 game (it indicated that Arizona beat Oklahoma by 1 point, when in actuality Oklahoma beat Arizona by 1 point—otherwise, Adjusted PA was 62-0 in correctly indicating winners)
PA indicated the actual scoring margin within 4 points in well over half (57%) of the games
Adjusted PA indicated the actual scoring margin within one basket (2 points) in 84% of the games
Adjusted PA indicated the actual scoring margin within 6 points in all 63 games

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