BCS Report

By Jeff Anderson

(November 25, 2007)

My, what a difference a week makes. After LSU’s shocking loss to Arkansas at home, the BCS National Championship Game picture actually looks surprisingly clear. The other BCS matchups, however, are anything but clear, with 10 of the top-14 teams in action on Saturday. Here’s how I see the National Championship-contenders’ chances—if they win out—and their most probable bowl destinations, as well as the probable BCS bowl matchups:

Missouri Tigers
BCS ranking: #1 (#1 in Anderson & Hester)
Games remaining: Big 12 Championship Game vs. #11 Oklahoma (A&H)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: Sure thing
Most likely bowls (in order of likelihood): BCS Championship, Cotton, Rose, Sugar
Commentary: If Missouri beats Oklahoma, then the Tigers will be playing for the national championship. The difficult question is where Missouri would head with a loss. If the Tigers lose to the Sooners, then nearly eveyone is projecting that the Rose Bowl will take (9-3) Illinois to replace Ohio State. But I think the Rose would be very interested in an 11-2 Missouri, especially one that loses a close game to Oklahoma. In fact, with wins over Kansas and Illinois, the 2-loss Tigers would seem to be the most attractive team available to invite to Pasadena. The Rose could also select 1-loss Kansas, since the Jayhawks didn’t lose twice to Oklahoma (and didn’t lose twice overall) and apparently have a larger fan base. But the Jayhawks lost to Missouri on a neutral field and have not beaten a current-top-25 team. Of course, the Rose Bowl prefers a Pac-10-Big Ten matchup, and that alone might be enough for the Rose to select Illinois, the best at-large candidate from the Big Ten and a large school with a fan-base who would rightly think Southern California an attractive wintertime destination. But since the Illini are not the Big Ten champions, are not in anybody’s top-10, have 3 losses, and lost to Missouri on a neutral field, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the Rose will take Missouri or Kansas over Illinois. In any event, the Rose will only be allowed to select the Illini if they move up one spot (to #14) in the BCS Standings, a near-certainty with so many teams ahead playing losable games—especially #14 Tennesseee, #13 Arizona State, #12 Hawaii, and #11 Boston College—and with no one challenging Illinois from behind, but nevertheless not a complete certainty. If Illinois is in fact the Rose Bowl's choice, then Missouri could potentially end up in the Sugar Bowl if Hawaii loses on Saturday or becomes the Fiesta Bowl's selection.

West Virginia Mountaineers
BCS ranking: #2 (#2 in A&H)
Games remaining: #76 Pittsburgh (A&H)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: Nearly certain
Most likely bowls (in order of likelihood): BCS National Championship, Orange
Commentary: Everything went the Mountaineers’ way this week. LSU lost, the Mountaineers impressively beat Connecticut, and the teams that had the best chance to catch them from behind either lost (Arizona State) or were badly hurt by other developments (Georgia, which first lost any chance to play the #1 team in the SEC Championship Game (with LSU’s loss), and then lost the chance to play in that game at all (with Tennessee’s win)). The only remaining danger for the Mountaineers, apart from losing, is for them to look so bad against (4-7) Pitt that they get caught from behind by idle Ohio State. If the Mountaineers don’t play for the national championship, their destination is clear: they’ll play in the Orange Bowl as the Big East champions. Thus, they join Ohio State as the only two teams assured of a BCS bid.

Ohio State Buckeyes
BCS ranking: #3 (#3 in A&H)
Games remaining: None
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game: So-so/Good
Most likely bowls (in order of likelihood): BCS National Championship, Rose
Commentary: Ohio State’s situation seems pretty straightforward—and rather enviable. If Oklahoma beats Missouri (or Pitt beats West Virginia), then Ohio State will almost certainly head to New Orleans. If Missouri beats Oklahoma (and West Virginia beats Pitt), then Ohio State will head to Pasadena. As is noted above, the Buckeyes could also end up heading to New Orleans if West Virginia looks bad enough, even in victory, at home against the nation’s #76 team. But the Mountaineers would have to look really bad to get caught from behind, as the gap between them and the Buckeyes is fairly large. In fact, Ohio State would have to overtake West Virginia in the polls by a solid margin, as West Virginia convincingly leads Ohio State in the computer rankings, and the idle Buckeyes aren't likely to make up much, if any, ground there. So the only way the Buckeyes could catch a victorious West Virginia would be if the voters are disgusted enough by the Mountaineers' victory that they are determined to try to prevent them from playing for the national championship.

Georgia Bulldogs
BCS ranking: #4 (#5 in A&H)
Games remaining: None
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: Very slim
Most likely bowls (in order of likelihood): Orange, Rose, Capital One
Commentary: Since Georgia and Ohio State are both idle and are separated by a wide margin in the BCS Standings, the Bulldogs can’t catch the Buckeyes. So, to make it to the BCS Championship Game, Georgia needs to have both Missouri and West Virginia lose and then hold off Virginia Tech and LSU. What are the Bulldogs' chances of holding off Virginia Tech and LSU? Virginia Tech would actually become more of a threat if LSU loses; otherwise, most poll voters will think twice about ranking, or about continuing to rank, the 2-loss Hokies above a 2-loss Tigers team that pummeled them. On the other hand, if LSU loses, then all of the SEC support will go to Georgia. In either event, Virginia Tech has a shot of catching Georgia, but I don't think it's a good one, and the Hokies would probably have to beat Boston College in very impressive fashion to be much of a threat. LSU is the greater threat. In terms of holding off the Tigers, it would presumably be best for Georgia if (1) Virginia Tech beats Boston College (thereby keeping LSU from rising by attrition) and (2) LSU doesn't rout Tennessee. If either of those two things goes the Bulldogs' way, I like their chances; if neither does, I like the Tigers' chances. If the Bulldogs don't make the BCS Championship Game (and, again, both West Virginia and Missouri would have to lose for them to have a chance), then their destination seems relatively clear. Since they are currently #4 in the BCS Standings and thus would be guaranteed a BCS spot (by rule) if they can stay there, and because they’d be an attractive team in any event, the Bulldogs look like they’re headed to the Orange Bowl. If Missouri remains #1, the Fiesta Bowl would get the first pick from among the at-large teams and would be able to select Georgia if it so desired, but for geographical reasons it seems almost certain the Fiesta wouldn’t do so and would instead invite a Big 12 team. Interestingly, if West Virginia loses, then the Rose Bowl might well be interested in Georgia as a replacement for Ohio State (see below), as the Rose will already have a team in the game from the West Coast. In any event, Georgia is nearly assured of a BCS bid, and could only be denied one if Florida is selected over the Bulldogs for the Orange Bowl or in the scenario where Missouri and Ohio State play for the national championship (with West Virginia going to the Orange), the Rose and Fiesta don't select Georgia, and the Sugar has to take Hawaii by default.

Kansas Jayhawks
BCS ranking: #5 (#4 in A&H)
Games remaining: None
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: None
Most likely bowls (in order of likelihood): Fiesta, Rose, Cotton, Sugar
Commentary: Kansas can't catch Georgia, so even losses by Missouri and West Virginia wouldn't help the Jayhawks get to New Orleans. But Kansas's shot at a BCS bid is very much alive and well. If Missouri plays in the BCS Championship Game, the Fiesta Bowl will likely pick the Jayhawks as Missouri's replacement. If Oklahoma beats Missouri and thereby heads to the Fiesta Bowl, then Kansas has a shot at a Rose Bowl bid (see the commentary on Missouri above). If the Rose instead selects Illinois, then Kansas could be selected for the Sugar Bowl if Hawaii loses to Washington or is selected by the Fiesta. Kansas could also feasibly be selected to play Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, but I really doubt the Fiesta Bowl wants an all-Big 12 matchup. If, in addition to Missouri losing, West Virginia loses, Georgia finishes #2 and therefore goes to the BCS Championship Game, and Kansas finishes #3 or #4 and ahead of Missouri, then Kansas would be guaranteed selection to the BCS by rule, and Missouri would then be ineligible (as Oklahoma and Kansas would then be the two selections from the Big 12, and there can't be three.) If Kansas doesn’t make the BCS (and the Jayhawks will presumably do so unless Missouri loses, in which case the matter will be thrown more into doubt), then the Cotton Bowl would likely be the Jayhawks’ destination.

Virginia Tech Hokies
BCS ranking: #6 (#9 in A&H)
Games remaining: ACC Championship Game vs. #10 Boston College (A&H)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: Very slim
Most likely bowls (in order of likelihood): Orange, Gator, Sugar, BCS Championship Game
Commentary: To make it to the BCS Championship Game, Virginia Tech needs to have both Missouri and West Virginia lose, hold off LSU, and jump ahead of Georgia (see the write-up on Georgia). Otherwise, the Hokies will likely play in the Orange Bowl as the ACC champions, or in the Gator Bowl as the ACC runners-up.

LSU Tigers
BCS ranking: #7 (#6 in A&H)
Games remaining: SEC Championship Game vs. #14 Tennessee (A&H)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: Very slim
Most likely bowls (in order of likelihood): Sugar, Cotton, BCS Championship Game
Commentary: To make it to New Orleans on January 7, rather than on January 1, LSU needs to have both Missouri and West Virginia lose and then jump ahead of Virginia Tech and Georgia (see the write-up on Georgia). Otherwise, the Tigers will likely play in the Sugar Bowl as SEC champions or, if they lose to Tennessee and don't win the SEC, in the Cotton Bowl.

Probable BCS Bowl Matchups:

(Teams/pairings, listed in order of likelihood)

BCS National Championship Game:
Contenders (in order): West Virginia, Ohio State, Missouri, Georgia, LSU, and Virginia Tech
Commentary: As is noted in detail above, the probable matchup is West Virginia versus either Missouri (if the Tigers beat Oklahoma) or Ohio State (if they don’t). I'm listing Ohio State ahead of Missouri because the Buckeyes will go to New Orleans if Oklahoma wins but also have a (slim) shot of going even if Missouri wins, while Missouri will go only with a win.

Orange Bowl:
Virginia Tech or Boston College vs. Georgia, West Virginia, or Florida
Commentary: The Orange Bowl matchup seems pretty straightforward: the ACC champion versus Georgia. It seems very unlikely the Orange would select a 3-loss Florida over a 2-loss Georgia that beat Florida, and that selection wouldn’t even be possible if Georgia finishes in the BCS top-4 and ahead of any other team that isn't the champion of one of the six automatic-qualifier conferences. (In that case the Bulldogs would have to be selected by rule (the #4 team must be selected), and Florida would therefore be ineligible (no conference can have more than two teams in the BCS, and the other SEC entry will be the LSU-Tennessee winner).) If West Virginia loses to Pitt, then the Mountaineers will play in the Orange.

Fiesta Bowl:
Oklahoma or Kansas vs. Arizona State, Hawaii, USC, or Illinois (or Kansas)
Commentary: If Missouri goes to the BCS Championship Game, the Fiesta Bowl would presumably replace Missouri with Kansas. If Missouri doesn’t go to the BCS Championship Game, then that will be because Missouri lost to Oklahoma, and the Sooners would then go to the Fiesta Bowl. Arizona State is Kansas’s or Oklahoma’s likely opponent if the Sun Devils beat Arizona. Otherwise, the guess here is that an undefeated Hawaii and a 3-loss USC would be next in line, in order, although Illinois would also be in the mix. If Oklahoma beats Missouri and Arizona State loses, then it's possible the Fiesta might be interested in having Kansas play the Sooners, should the Rose Bowl not take Kansas or Missouri.

Rose Bowl:
USC, Arizona State, or UCLA vs. Ohio State, Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, or Georgia
Commentary: The Pac-10 champion (USC if it beats UCLA) will play Ohio State unless the Buckeyes go to the BCS Championship Game. If Oklahoma wins the Big 12 (and West Virginia beats Pitt), then the Rose will lose Ohio State and will replace the Buckeyes with Missouri, Kansas, or Illinois (see the discussion above, in the commentary on Missouri). If Missouri beats Oklahoma but West Virginia loses to Pitt, then the Rose will get the second pick overall to select a replacement for Ohio State. After the Fiesta Bowl presumably selects Kansas, the Rose Bowl’s choice might well be Georgia. Georgia would also be available (with the Rose then having the first pick) if Missouri also loses and either LSU or Virginia Tech jumps Georgia to play Ohio State. But, to repeat, regardless of what Missouri does, Georgia will only be in the running for the Rose Bowl if West Virginia loses to #76 Pitt (because if the Mountaineers win, the Orange will select ahead of the Rose and will surely take Georgia (or Florida)), so the Bulldogs’ appearance in Pasadena is certainly a long shot.

Sugar Bowl:
LSU, Tennessee, or Georgia vs. Hawaii, USC, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Virginia Tech, or Boston College
Commentary: The Sugar Bowl will get the SEC champion (LSU or Tennessee) unless LSU very improbably lands in the BCS Championship Game. Because the Sugar Bowl gets the last pick among the BCS bowls, its other entry will likely be Hawaii by default. But if Hawaii loses to Washington or is selected by the Fiesta Bowl in the wake of a late upset or two in the Pac-10, then either 3-loss Illinois or a 3-loss USC would seem to be the most likely selection, with USC vs. LSU being a particularly intriguing possibility. Missouri or Kansas would be there for the picking if Missouri loses to Oklahoma, Illinois is selected by the Rose, and Hawaii either loses to Washington or is selected by the Fiesta (which would require Arizona to beat Arizona State)—provided the Fiesta doesn't take Kansas. The 3-loss ACC runner-up could also be a possibility, albeit a relatively distant one. The one matchup the Sugar Bowl will surely not present is an LSU-Virginia Tech rematch, a game absolutely no one wants to see.