In the wake of Illinois’s upset of Ohio State, nine teams seemingly have some shot of playing in the BCS National Championship Game if they win out, and five of those seem to have a pretty good shot.  But nobody can afford a loss, and nobody’s road is free and clear.

While no one can foresee how the BCS Standings will play out (and they are pretending if they assert otherwise), here is my assessment of the leading contenders’ prospects of making the BCS Championship Game—if they win out:

LSU Tigers
BCS ranking:  #1 (#1 in A&H)
Games remaining:  at #77 Mississippi, #47 Arkansas (A&H), SEC Championship Game (potentially)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out:  Very good
Commentary:  Ohio State’s loss means LSU probably only needs to win out to make it to New Orleans.  If either Oregon or Kansas loses, you can remove that “probably.”

Oregon Ducks
BCS ranking:  #2 (#2 in A&H)
Games remaining:  at #69 Arizona, at #43 UCLA, #32 Oregon St. (A&H)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out:  Very good
Commentary:  Last week, the Ducks seemed to need two losses from among Ohio St., LSU, and Kansas.  Now they’ve gotten one.  And if either LSU or Kansas loses, the Ducks will presumably control their own destiny.  It’s also possible Oregon will be able to catch LSU without the Tigers losing or hold off Kansas without the Jayhawks losing, but neither possibility is easy to envision.  But with LSU facing a likely matchup against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, and Kansas needing to survive Missouri and likely Oklahoma, Oregon’s position seems like a pretty enviable one.

Kansas Jayhawks
BCS ranking:  #3 (#3 in A&H)
Games remaining:  #83 Iowa St., #5 Missouri (A&H), Big 12 Championship Game (potentially)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out:  Very good
Commentary:  Perhaps even more so than for LSU, Kansas doesn’t seem to need any other team to lose.  If they finish 13-0, post wins over Missouri and Oklahoma, become Big 12 champions, and emerge as the only undefeated team from one of the six major conferences—and these are big “ifs”— the guess here is that, as of January 7, the Jayhawks won’t be in Kansas anymore.

Oklahoma Sooners
BCS ranking:  #4 (#7 in A&H)
Games remaining:  at #54 Texas Tech, #42 Oklahoma St. (A&H), Big 12 Championship Game (potentially)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out:  So-so/Good
Commentary:  The picture for both Oklahoma and Missouri seems pretty clear.  It appears they simply need to win out (if that happens, Kansas will have lost in the process) and have either LSU or Oregon lose.  They might possibly have to sweat out a challenge from behind by a team like West Virginia, but it’s hard to imagine that challenge would be successful. 

Missouri Tigers
BCS ranking:  #5 (#5 in A&H)
Games remaining:  at #57 Kansas St., #3 Kansas (A&H), Big 12 Championship Game (potentially)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out:  So-so/Good
Commentary:  Aside from having a tougher road ahead themselves, the Tigers’ picture is just like the Sooners’ (see above).

West Virginia Mountaineers
BCS ranking:  #6 (#9 in A&H)
Games remaining:  at #18 Cincinnati, #20 Connecticut, #74 Pittsburgh (A&H)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out:  Not good
Commentary:  The Mountaineers likely need to have both LSU and Oregon lose; however, if that happens, they’ll be in the inside lane for a spot opposite the Big 12 champion in New Orleans.

Ohio State Buckeyes
BCS ranking:  #7 (#6 in A&H)
Games remaining:  at #22 Michigan (A&H)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out:  Not good
Commentary:  Ohio St. and Arizona St. are in nearly the same position.  Each needs to win out and probably have all but one team ahead of them lose (although they could possibly catch West Virginia on their own), then hold off the other and Georgia.  But this might be more likely than it initially sounds, because among Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri, at least two teams are mathematically guaranteed to lose.  If LSU and Oregon both lose, then Ohio St. and Arizona St. will get back on the lead lap.  If West Virginia loses as well, then those two teams will very much be in the running for the checkered flag.

Arizona State Sun Devils
BCS ranking:  #8 (#4 in A&H)
Games remaining:  #10 USC, #69 Arizona (A&H)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out:  Not good
Commentary:  See the Ohio St. commentary above.

Georgia Bulldogs
BCS ranking:  #9 (#8 in A&H)
Games remaining:  #24 Kentucky, at #41 Georgia Tech (A&H), SEC Championship Game (potentially)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out:  Not good
Commentary:  The Bulldogs are not on most people’s radar (except as a potential spoiler), but since they are in a position to knock off LSU themselves, they are the only 2-loss team that is not out of the equation.  Apart from winning out, all the Bulldogs clearly need to get back into the discussion is an Oregon loss.  But they would still have to prevail in the BCS Standings over West Virginia, Ohio St., and Arizona St., all of which would then be competing for a spot opposite the Big 12 champion in the Superdome.