Anderson Sports

BCS Report
By Jeff Anderson
(November 4, 2007)

This has been perhaps the craziest season on record, and with ten weeks in the books, there is still plenty of drama ahead. Contrary to what some commentators are reporting, the BCS National Championship Game matchup is far from clear. In fact, in my estimation, 7 teams have more than a long-shot chance of playing in the BCS Championship Game if they win out. In this crazy year, those last four words are key: if they win out. Not one of the top-7 teams in the BCS Standings has an easy road the rest of the way.

While no one can foresee how the BCS Standings will play out (and they are pretending if they assert otherwise), here is my assessment of the leading contenders’ prospects of making the BCS Championship Game—if they win out:

Ohio State Buckeyes
BCS ranking: #1 (#1 in the Anderson & Hester Rankings (A&H))

Games remaining: #26 Illinois, at #14 Michigan (A&H)

Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: Nearly certain

Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game with a loss: Not good

Commentary: Almost without question, the Buckeyes control their own destiny. Win versus #26 Illinois and at archrival (#14) Michigan, and get a BCS Championship Game bid. Unlike any other team, the Buckeyes could even feasibly survive a loss from this point forward. To do so, they would likely need to look good in defeat, either by losing close at Michigan or—probably better yet—by losing close to Illinois and rebounding to beat Michigan on the road. Then they would need to root for loses by all but one of the following teams: Oregon, Kansas, LSU, Missouri, Oklahoma, and (less certainly) West Virginia. But if the undefeated Buckeyes win out, they’ll be heading to New Orleans.

LSU Tigers
BCS ranking: #2 (#5 in A&H)
Games remaining: #87 Louisiana Tech, at #76 Mississippi, #38 Arkansas (A&H), SEC Championship Game (potentially)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: Good
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game with a loss: Slim to none
Commentary: The Tigers are well positioned to play in the National Championship Game in their home state if they can win out, including beating either Georgia, Tennessee, or possibly Florida, in the SEC Championship Game. But they are not the sure bet to make it if they win out that some have suggested. It would be very hard to deny a BCS Championship Game bid to a 13-0 Kansas that finishes with wins over Missouri and Oklahoma on neutral fields, and Oregon is hot on LSU’s tail. The Tigers might not need losses by Ohio St., Kansas, or Oregon—but they should root for them, because they might.

Oregon Ducks
BCS ranking: #3 (#2 in A&H)
Games remaining: at #70 Arizona, at #41 UCLA, #37 Oregon St. (A&H)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: So-so/Good
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game with a loss: Slim to none
Commentary: With two road games versus decent teams and the “Civil War” versus #37 Oregon St. remaining, the Ducks (like the Buckeyes and Tigers) are hardly out of the woods, but they are a lot closer after Saturday’s big win over #4 Arizona St. Even if the Ducks win out, to make it to New Orleans they would likely need two of the top-4 teams in the BCS Standings—Ohio St., LSU, and Kansas—to lose. With that said, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that Oregon could catch LSU without the Tigers losing (as the two teams are really only separated by about a half a spot in the BCS Standings), and it’s also possible the Ducks could hold off the Jayhawks even if Kansas were to finish unbeaten—although I doubt it.

Kansas Jayhawks
BCS ranking: #4 (#3 in A&H)
Games remaining: at #43 Oklahoma St., #100 Iowa St., #6 Missouri (A&H), Big 12 Championship Game (potentially)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: Good
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game with a loss: Slim to none
Commentary: The Jayhawks have arguably the toughest road ahead of any of the leading teams, but if they can survive a road trip to Stillwater, a neutral-site game versus Missouri in Kansas City, and a potential Big 12 Championship Game matchup against Oklahoma, finishing undefeated in the process, then they will have an excellent chance of heading to the BCS Championship Game regardless of whether anyone ahead of them loses. But that’s easier said than done.

Oklahoma Sooners
BCS ranking: #5 (#8 in A&H)
Games remaining: #86 Baylor, at #44 Texas Tech, #43 Oklahoma St. (A&H), Big 12 Championship Game (potentially)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: So-so
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game with a loss: Slim to none
Commentary: In addition to winning out, the Sooners appear to need two of the following three teams to lose: Ohio St., LSU, and Oregon. Then Oklahoma would just have to hold off West Virginia, which the Sooners seem to be well positioned to do.

Missouri Tigers

BCS ranking: #6 (#6 in A&H)
Games remaining: #42 Texas A&M, at #45 Kansas St., #3 Kansas (A&H), Big 12 Championship Game (potentially)
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: So-so
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game with a loss: Slim to none
Commentary: Like Oklahoma, the Tigers need to win out, have two of the BCS’s top-3 teams lose (Ohio St., LSU, and Oregon), and hold off West Virginia—the latter part of which would be easier if Kansas and Oklahoma don’t lose before playing Missouri.

West Virginia Mountaineers
BCS ranking: #7 (#11 in A&H)
Games remaining: #56 Louisville, at #29 Cincinnati, #10 Connecticut, #74 Pittsburgh
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game if they win out: Not good
Prospects of making the BCS Championship Game with a loss: Slim to none
Commentary: The Mountaineers probably need 5 of the 6 teams ahead of them in the BCS Standings to lose, although they might possibly be able to catch Oklahoma—or maybe Missouri—on their own. Nevertheless, given the games that those top-6 BCS teams have left, the Mountaineers are by no means out of it if they can run the table.

Long-shots:

Boston College Eagles (#8 in the BCS, #7 in A&H), Arizona State Sun Devils (#9 in the BCS, #4 in A&H), and Connecticut Huskies (#13 in the BCS, #10 in A&H)

Commentary: As 1-loss teams with marquee games still remaining (Boston College at #25 Clemson and possibly versus #12 Virginia or #16 Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Arizona St. versus #15 USC, and Connecticut at #11 West Virginia (A&H)), these teams are certainly not entirely out of the national championship race. Nevertheless, in addition to winning out, they would need this season’s slate of upsets to continue at the expense of most of the teams above them.